巴菲特1984年在哥倫比亞大學的著名演講

1984年在慶祝格雷罕姆與多德合著的《證券分析》發行５０周年大會上，巴菲特－這位格雷厄姆在哥倫比亞大學的投資課上唯一給了「A＋」的最優秀的學生進行了一次題為「格雷厄姆-多德都市的超級投資者們」 (The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville)」的演講，在他演講中回顧了50年來格雷厄姆的追隨者們采用價值投資策略持續戰勝市場的無可爭議的事實，總結歸納出價值投資策略的精髓，在投資界具有非常大的影響力。




THE SUPERINVESTORS OF GRAHAM-AND-DODDSVILLE



Tilsonfunds EDITOR'S NOTE: This article is an edited transcript of a talk given at Columbia University in 1984 commemorating the fiftieth anniversary of Security Analysis , written by Benjamin Graham and David L. Dodd. This specialized volume first introduced the ideas later popularized in The Intelligent Investor . Buffett's essay offers a fascinating study of how Graham's disciples have used Graham's value investing approach to realize phenomenal success in the stock market.

Is the Graham and Dodd "look for values with a significant margin of safety relative to prices" approach to security analysis out of date? Many of the professors who write textbooks today say yes. They argue that the stock market is efficient; that is, that stock prices reflect everything that is known about a company's prospects and about the state of the economy. There are no undervalued stocks, these theorists argue, because there are smart security analysts who utilize all available information to ensure unfailingly appropriate prices. Investors who seem to beat the market year after year are just lucky. "If prices fully reflect available information, this sort of investment adeptness is ruled out," writes one of today's textbook authors.

格雷厄姆與多德追求「價 值遠超過價格的安全保障」，這種證券分析方法是否已經過時?目前許多撰寫教科書的教授認為如此。他們認為，股票市場是有效率的市場；換言之，股票價格已經 充分反應了公司一切己知的事實以及整體經濟情況：這些理論家認為，市場上沒有價格偏低的股票，因為聰明的證券分析師將運用全部的既有資訊，以確保適當的價 格。投資者能經年累月地擊敗市場，純粹是運氣使然。「如果價格完全反應既有的資訊，則這類的投資技巧將不存在。」一位現今教科書的作者如此與寫道。

Well, maybe. But I want to present to you a group of investors who have, year in and year out, beaten the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index. The hypothesis that they do this by pure chance is at least worth examining. Crucial to this examination is the fact that these winners were all well known to me and pre-identified as superior investors, the most recent identification occurring over fifteen years ago. Absent this condition - that is, if I had just recently searched among thousands of records to select a few names for you this morning -- I would advise you to stop reading right here. I should add that all of these records have been audited. And I should further add that I have known many of those who have invested with these managers, and the checks received by those participants over the years have matched the stated records.

或許如此！但是，我要提供一組投資者的績效供各位參考，他們長期的表現總是超越史坦普500種股價指數。他們的績效即使純屬巧合，這項假說至少也值得我們加以審查。審查的關鍵事實是，我早就熟識這些贏家，而且長年以來便視他們為超級投資者，最近的認知也有十五年之久。缺少這項條件——換言之，如果我最近才從成千上萬的記錄中挑選幾個名字，並且在今天早上提供給各位——我建議各位立即停止閱讀本文。我必須說明，所有的這些記錄都經過稽核。我必須再說明，我認識許多上述經理人的客戶，他們長年以來所收取的支票確實符合既有的記錄。

Before we begin this examination, I would like you to imagine a national coin-flipping contest. Let's assume we get 225 million Americans up tomorrow morning and we ask them all to wager a dollar. They go out in the morning at sunrise, and they all call the flip of a coin. If they call correctly, they win a dollar from those who called wrong. Each day the losers drop out, and on the subsequent day the stakes build as all previous winnings are put on the line. After ten flips on ten mornings, there will be approximately 220,000 people in the United States who have correctly called ten flips in a row. They each will have won a little over $1,000.

在進行審查之前，我要各位設想—場全國性的擲銅板大賽。讓我們假定，全美國2．25億的人口在明天早晨起床時都擲出一枚一美元的銅板。早晨太陽升起時，他們都走到門外擲銅板，並猜銅板出現的正面或反面。如果猜對了，他們將從猜錯者的手中贏得一美元。每大都有輸家遭到淘汰，獎金則不斷地累積。經過十個早晨的十次投擲之後，全美國約有2．2萬人連續十次猜對擲銅板的結果。每人所贏得的資金約超過1000美元。

Now this group will probably start getting a little puffed up about this, human nature being what it is. They may try to be modest, but at cocktail parties they will occasionally admit to attractive members of the opposite sex what their technique is, and what marvelous insights they bring to the field of flipping.

現在，這群人可能會開始炫耀自己的戰績，此乃人的天性使然。他們可能保持謙虛的態度，但在雞尾酒宴會中，他們偶爾會以此技巧吸引異性的注意，並炫耀其投擲銅板的奇異洞察力。

Assuming that the winners are getting the appropriate rewards from the losers, in another ten days we will have 215 people who have successfully called their coin flips 20 times in a row and who, by this exercise, each have turned one dollar into a little over $1 million. $225 million would have been lost, $225 million would have been won.

假定贏家都可以從輸家手中得到適當的獎金，再經過十天，約有215個人連續二十次猜對擲銅板的結果，每個人並贏得大約100萬美元的獎金。輸家總共付出2．25億美元，贏家則得到2．25億美元。

By then, this group will really lose their heads. They will probably write books on "How I turned a Dollar into a Million in Twenty Days Working Thirty Seconds a Morning." Worse yet, they'll probably start jetting around the country attending seminars on efficient coin-flipping and tackling skeptical professors with, " If it can't be done, why are there 215 of us?"

這時候，這群人可能完全沉迷在自己的成就中：他們可能開始著書立說：「我如何每天早晨工作30秒，而在二十天之內將—美元變成100萬美元。」更糟的是，他們會在全國各地參加講習會，宣揚如何有效地投擲銅板，並且反駁持懷疑態度的教授說，「如果這是不可能的事，為什麼會有我們這215個人呢?」

By then some business school professor will probably be rude enough to bring up the fact that if 225 million orangutans had engaged in a similar exercise, the results would be much the same - 215 egotistical orangutans with 20 straight winning flips.

但是，某商學院的教授可能會粗魯地提出—項事實，如果2．25億只猩猩參加這場大賽，結果大致上也是如此——有215只自大的猩猩將連續贏得20次的投擲。

I would argue, however, that there are some important differences in the examples I am going to present. For one thing, if (a) you had taken 225 million orangutans distributed roughly as the U.S. population is; if (b) 215 winners were left after 20 days; and if (c) you found that 40 came from a particular zoo in Omaha, you would be pretty sure you were on to something. So you would probably go out and ask the zookeeper about what he's feeding them, whether they had special exercises, what books they read, and who knows what else. That is, if you found any really extraordinary concentrations of success, you might want to see if you could identify concentrations of unusual characteristics that might be causal factors.

然而，我必須說明，前述事例和我即將提出的案例，兩者之間存在著若干重大差異。旨先，如果(a)你所選擇的2．25億只猩猩的分布狀況大致上和美國的人口分布相同；如果(b)經過20天的競賽，只剩下215只贏家；如果(c)你發現其中有40只猩猩來自於奧瑪哈的某個動物園，則其中必有蹊蹺。於是，你會詢問猩猩管理員各種問題，它們吃什麼飼料、是否做特殊的運動、閱讀什麼書籍……換言之，如果你發現成功案例有非比尋常的集中現象，則你希望判定此異常的特色是否是成功的原因。

Scientific inquiry naturally follows such a pattern. If you were trying to analyze possible causes of a rare type of cancer -- with, say, 1,500 cases a year in the United States -- and you found that 400 of them occurred in some little mining town in Montana, you would get very interested in the water there, or the occupation of those afflicted, or other variables. You know it's not random chance that 400 come from a small area. You would not necessarily know the causal factors, but you would know where to search.

科學的調查也遵循此一形態。如果你試圖分析某種罕見的癌症原因——例如，美國每年只有1500個病例——而你發現蒙大拿州的某個礦區小鎮便產生400個病例，則你必然對當地的飲水、病患的職業或其他種種變數產生興趣。你知道，在—個小鎮中發生400個病例，絕不是隨機因素所造成。雖然你未必了解病因，但你知道從哪裡著手調查。

I submit to you that there are ways of defining an origin other than geography. In addition to geographical origins, there can be what I call an intellectual origin. I think you will find that a disproportionate number of successful coin-flippers in the investment world came from a very small intellectual village that could be called Graham-and-Doddsville. A concentration of winners that simply cannot be explained by chance can be traced to this particular intellectual village.

除了地理國家，還有其他方式可以界定起源。除了地理的起源，還有我所謂「智力的起源」。我認為各位將在投資領域發現，不成比例的銅板投擲贏家來自於一個極小的智力村莊．它可以稱為「格雷厄姆一多德都市」。這個特殊智力村存在著許多贏家．這種集中現象絕非巧合所能夠解釋。

Conditions could exist that would make even that concentration unimportant. Perhaps 100 people were simply imitating the coin-flipping call of some terribly persuasive personality. When he called heads, 100 followers automatically called that coin the same way. If the leader was part of the 215 left at the end, the fact that 100 came from the same intellectual origin would mean nothing. You would simply be identifying one case as a hundred cases. Similarly, let's assume that you lived in a strongly patriarchal society and every family in the United States conveniently consisted of ten members. Further assume that the patriarchal culture was so strong that, when the 225 million people went out the first day, every member of the family identified with the father's call. Now, at the end of the 20-day period, you would have 215 winners, and you would find that they came from only 21.5 families. Some naive types might say that this indicates an enormous hereditary factor as an explanation of successful coin-flipping. But, of course, it would have no significance at all because it would simply mean that you didn't have 215 individual winners, but rather 21.5 randomly distributed families who were winners.

在某些情況下，即使非比尋常的集中現象也可能不重要。或許有100個只是模仿某一位極具說服力的領導者，而依其主張來猜測銅板的投擲結果。當他猜正面，100個追隨者也會自動地做相同的猜測。如果這一位領導者是屬於最後215位贏家之一，則這100也便屬於同一個智力起源，這項事實便不具有任何意義，因為100個案例實際上只代表一個案例。同理，假定你生活在一個父權結構極為嚴密的社會，而美國每一個家庭都恰好以父親馬首是瞻。20天之後，你將發現215位贏家是來自於21．5個家庭。若干天真的分析師可能因此而認為，成功地猜測鋼板投擲的結果，其中具有高度的遺傳因素。當然，這實際上不具有任何意義，因為你所擁有的不是215位個別贏家，而只是21．5個隨機分布的家庭。



In this group of successful investors that I want to consider, there has been a common intellectual patriarch, Ben Graham. But the children who left the house of this intellectual patriarch have called their "flips" in very different ways. They have gone to different places and bought and sold different stocks and companies, yet they have had a combined record that simply cannot be explained by the fact that they are all calling flips identically because a leader is signaling the calls for them to make. The patriarch has merely set forth the intellectual theory for making coin-calling decisions, but each student has decided on his own manner of applying the theory.

我所要考慮的這一群成功投資者，共有一位共同的智力族長—— 本傑明·格雷厄姆。但是，這些離開此智力家族的孩童，都是依據非常不同的方法猜測他們自己的「銅板」。他們各自前往不同的地方，買賣不同的股票和企業，但 他們的綜合績效絕對無法用隨機因素加以解釋。他們做相同的猜測，並不是因為領導者下達某一項指令，因此也無法用這種方式解釋他們的表現。族知只提供了猜測 銅板的智力理論，每位學生都必須自行決定如何運用這項理論。

The common intellectual theme of the investors from Graham-and-Doddsville is this: they search for discrepancies between the value of a business and the price of small pieces of that business in the market. Essentially, they exploit those discrepancies without the efficient market theorist's concern as to whether the stocks are bought on Monday or Thursday, or whether it is January or July, etc. Incidentally, when businessmen buy businesses, which is just what our Graham & Dodd investors are doing through the purchase of marketable stocks -- I doubt that many are cranking into their purchase decision the day of the week or the month in which the transaction is going to occur. If it doesn't make any difference whether all of a business is being bought on a Monday or a Friday, I am baffled why academicians invest extensive time and effort to see whether it makes a difference when buying small pieces of those same businesses. Our Graham & Dodd investors, needless to say, do not discuss beta, the capital asset pricing model, or covariance in returns among securities. These are not subjects of any interest to them. In fact, most of them would have difficulty defining those terms. The investors simply focus on two variables: price and value.

來自「格 雷厄姆一多德都市」的投資者所具備的共同智力結構是：他們探索企業的價值與該企業市場價格之間的差異。事實上，他們利用其間的差異，卻不在意效率市場理論 家所關心的問題：股票究竟在星期一或星期—：買進，或是在一月份或七月份買進……。當企業家買進某家公司時——這正是格雷厄姆一多德都市的投資者透過上市 股票所從事的行為——我懷疑有多少人會在意交易必須發生於某個月份或某個星期的第一天。如果企業的買進交易發生在星期一或星期五沒有任何差別，則我無法了 解學術界人士為何要花費大量的時間和精力，探討代表該企業部分股權的交易發生時的差異。毋庸多說，格雷厄姆一多德都市的投資者並不探討bate、資本資產定價模型、證券投資報酬本的變異數。這些都不足他們所關心的議題。事實上，他們大多數難以界定上述學術名詞。他們只在乎兩項實數：價格與價值。

I always find it extraordinary that so many studies are made of price and volume behavior, the stuff of chartists. Can you imagine buying an entire business simply because the price of the business had been marked up substantially last week and the week before? Of course, the reason a lot of studies are made of these price and volume variables is that now, in the age of computers, there are almost endless data available about them. It isn't necessarily because such studies have any utility; it's simply that the data are there and academicians have [worked] hard to learn the mathematical skills needed to manipulate them. Once these skills are acquired, it seems sinful not to use them, even if the usage has no utility or negative utility. As a friend said, to a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

面對圖形分析師所研究的價量行為，我始終感覺驚訝。你是否會僅僅因為某家公司的市場價格在本周或前一周劇揚．便決定購買該企業呢?在日前電腦化的時代，人們之所以會大量研究價格與成交量的行為，理由是這兩項變數擁有了無數的資料。研究未必是因為其具任何功用；而只是因為資料既然存在，學術界人士便必須努力學習操作這些資料所需要的數學技巧。—旦擁有這些技巧，不去運用它們便會帶來罪惡感，即使這些技巧的運用沒有任何功用，或只會帶來負面功用．也在所不惜。如同一位朋友所說的，對一位持鐵錘的人來說，每—樣事看起來都像是釘子。

I think the group that we have identified by a common intellectual home is worthy of study. Incidentally, despite all the academic studies of the influence of such variables as price, volume, seasonality, capitalization size, etc., upon stock performance, no interest has been evidenced in studying the methods of this unusual concentration of value-oriented winners.

我認為，這一群具有共同智力起源的投資者非常值得我們研究。雖然學術界不斷地對價格、成交量、季節性、資本規模以及其他變數，研究它們對股票績效的影響，但這群以價值為導向贏家的方法卻毫不受人關心。

I begin this study of results by going back to a group of four of us who worked at Graham-Newman Corporation from 1954 through 1956. There were only four -- I have not selected these names from among thousands. I offered to go to work at Graham-Newman for nothing after I took Ben Graham's class, but he turned me down as overvalued. He took this value stuff very seriously! After much pestering he finally hired me. There were three partners and four of us as the "peasant" level. All four left between 1955 and 1957 when the firm was wound up, and it's possible to trace the record of three.

關於這一項績效的研究，我首先要追溯到從1954年到1956年間，工作於Greham—Newman公司的四位伙伴。我們總共四個人——我並不是從數以千計的對象中挑選這四個人。在我選修本傑明·格雷厄姆的課程之後，我要求進人Graham—Newman公司擔任無給職的工作，但格雷厄姆卻以價值高估而拒絕了我的要求。他對價值看得非常嚴重！經我不斷地懇求，他最後答應雇我。當時公司有三位合伙股東，以及我們四位「學徒」。公司結束經營之後，我們四個人陸續在1955年到1957年間離開公司，目前只能夠追蹤其中三個人的投資記錄。

The first example (see Table 1*正文不附表格，可參考查詢文末所附的英文PDF文件) is that of Walter Schloss. Walter never went to college, but took a course from Ben Graham at night at the New York Institute of Finance. Walter left Graham-Newman in 1955 and achieved the record shown here over 28 years. Here is what "Adam Smith" -- after I told him about Walter -- wrote about him in Supermoney (1972):

第一個案例（*正文不附表格，可參考查詢文末所附的英文PDF文件）是華特·史洛斯。華特從來沒有念過大學，但他在紐約金融協會參加了本傑明·葛雷厄姆的夜間課程。華特在1955年離開Greham—Newman公司。以下是「亞當·史密斯」——在我和他談論有關華特的事跡之後——在《超級金錢》(Supermoney，1972年) 一書中對他所做的描述：

He has no connections or access to useful information. Practically no one in Wall Street knows him and he is not fed any ideas. He looks up the numbers in the manuals and sends for the annual reports, and that's about it.

他從來不運用或接觸有用的資訊。在華爾街幾乎沒有人認識他，所以沒有人提供他有關投資的觀念。他只參考手冊上的數字，並要求企業寄年報給他，情況便是如此。

In introducing me to (Schloss) Warren had also, to my mind, described himself. "He never forgets that he is handling other people's money, and this reinforces his normal strong aversion to loss." He has total integrity and a realistic picture of himself. Money is real to him and stocks are real -- and from this flows an attraction to the "margin of safety" principle.

當華特介紹我們認識時，他曾經描述「他從來沒有忘記自己是在管理別人的資金，這進一步強化了他對於風險的厭惡。」他有高尚的品格．並以務實的態度自持。對他來說．金錢是真實的，股票也真實的——並從此而接受了「安全邊際」的原則。

Walter has diversified enormously, owning well over 100 stocks currently. He knows how to identify securities that sell at considerably less than their value to a private owner. And that's all he does. He doesn't worry about whether it it's January, he doesn't worry about whether it's Monday, he doesn't worry about whether it's an election year. He simply says, if a business is worth a dollar and I can buy it for 40 cents, something good may happen to me. And he does it over and over and over again. He owns many more stocks than I do -- and is far less interested in the underlying nature of the business; I don't seem to have very much influence on Walter. That's one of his strengths; no one has much influence on him.

華特的投資組合極為分散，目前擁有的股票遠越過100支。他了解如何選股，將價格遠低於其價值者出售給私人投資者。這便是他所做的一切。他不擔心目前是不是一月份，不在乎今天是不是星期一，也不關心今年是不是大選年。他的想法非常單純，如果某家公司值一美元，若我能夠以40美分買進，我遲早會獲利。他便是如此不斷地行動：他所持有的股票種類遠比我的多——而且比我更不關心企業的本質；我對華特似乎沒有太大的影響力。這是他的長處之—，沒有人能夠對他產生足夠的影響力。

The second case is Tom Knapp, who also worked at Graham-Newman with me. Tom was a chemistry major at Princeton before the war; when he came back from the war, he was a beach bum. And then one day he read that Dave Dodd was giving a night course in investments at Columbia. Tom took it on a noncredit basis, and he got so interested in the subject from taking that course that he came up and enrolled at Columbia Business School, where he got the MBA degree. He took Dodd's course again, and took Ben Graham's course. Incidentally, 35 years later I called Tom to ascertain some of the facts involved here and I found him on the beach again. The only difference is that now he owns the beach!

第二個案例是湯姆·科納普，他曾經和我一起在Greham—Newman公司工作。湯姆於大戰之前曾在普林斯頓大學主修化學，大戰結束之後，他經常在海灘游蕩。某一天，他得知大衛·多德將在可倫比亞大學開夜間投資課程。湯姆以旁聽方式選修該課程，之後他對投資學科產生了濃厚的興趣，於是正式注冊進入哥倫比亞大學商學院，並且獲得了MBA學位。35年之後，我撥電話給湯姆，確定某些有關此一主題的事，我發現他仍然在海灘游蕩。惟—的差別是．他目前擁有一片海灘！

In 1968, Tom Knapp and Ed Anderson, also a Graham disciple, along with one or two other fellows of similar persuasion, formed Tweedy, Browne Partners, and their investment results appear in Table 2. Tweedy, Browne built that record with very wide diversification. They occasionally bought control of businesses, but the record of the passive investments is equal to the record of the control investments.

在1968年，湯姆與艾德·安德生——也是葛拉漢的信徒——以及其他一、兩位有共同信念的人，組成了帝地布朗合伙公司。帝地布朗合伙公司的投資高度分散。他們偶爾會從事控制股權的投資，但其被動式的投資績效約略等於控權式投資的表現。

Table 3 describes the third member of the group who formed Buffett Partnership in 1957. The best thing he did was to quit in 1969. Since then, in a sense, Berkshire Hathaway has been a continuation of the partnership in some respects. There is no single index I can give you that I would feel would be a fair test of investment management at Berkshire. But I think that any way you figure it, it has been satisfactory.

表3是格雷厄姆－紐曼公司第三位員工的投資業績記錄。他在1957年成立巴菲特合伙公司。他做出的最明智的決策是在1969年結束合伙公司。從此之後，伯克夏.哈撒韋公司在某種程度上成為合伙公司的延續。我無法給各位單一的指數，用以合理地測試伯克夏公司的投資管理。但是，我認為各位不論如何考驗它，它的表現一直都令人滿意。

Table 4 shows the record of the Sequoia Fund, which is managed by a man whom I met in 1951 in Ben Graham's class, Bill Ruane. After getting out of Harvard Business School, he went to Wall Street. Then he realized that he needed to get a real business education so he came up to take Ben's course at Columbia, where we met in early 1951. Bill's record from 1951 to 1970, working with relatively small sums, was far better than average. When I wound up Buffett Partnership I asked Bill if he would set up a fund to handle all our partners, so he set up the Sequoia Fund. He set it up at a terrible time, just when I was quitting. He went right into the two-tier market and all the difficulties that made for comparative performance for value-oriented investors. I am happy to say that my partners, to an amazing degree, not only stayed with him but added money, with the happy result shown here.

表四是紅杉基金經理人比爾·盧昂的投資業績記錄，我在1951年格雷厄姆的講座中認識他。哈佛商學院畢業之後，他進入華爾街。稍後，他發覺需要接受真正的商業教育，於是參加了格雷厄姆在哥倫比亞大學開辦的講座，我們便相逢於1951年初。從1951年到1970年間。比爾所管理的資金規模相當小，績效卻遠比大盤來得好。當我結束巴菲特合伙公司的業務時，我要求比爾成立—個基金公司，來管理我們合伙股東的資金，他於是成立了紅杉基金。他成立基金的時機非常不利。他面臨兩個層次的市場，以及以價值為導向的投資者相當難以運作的情況。我十分樂於提及一點．我的合伙股東不僅繼續委托他管理，還投入更多的資金，而且對他的表現十分贊賞。

There's no hindsight involved here. Bill was the only person I recommended to my partners, and I said at the time that if he achieved a four-point-per-annum advantage over the Standard & Poor's, that would be solid performance. Bill has achieved well over that, working with progressively larger sums of money. That makes things much more difficult. Size is the anchor of performance. There is no question about it. It doesn't mean you can't do better than average when you get larger, but the margin shrinks. And if you ever get so you're managing two trillion dollars, and that happens to be the amount of the total equity valuation in the economy, don't think that you'll do better than average!

其 中並不涉及後見之明。比爾是我推薦給合伙股東的惟一人選，我當時就表示，如果他的績效能夠高出史坦普指數四個百分點，這便是非常穩固的表現。比爾的績效遠 甚於此，而且所管理的資金規模不斷地擴大。這使得管理愈來愈困難。資金規模是績效的拖累，這是毫無疑問的。這並不意味當資金規模擴大，你的表現便無法超越 平均水准，只是超越的幅度會縮小。如果你所管理的資金是2兆美元，則你的表現必然無法超越平均水准，因為你的資金規模便是整個股票市場的總市值。



I should add that in the records we've looked at so far, throughout this whole period there was practically no duplication in these portfolios. These are men who select securities based on discrepancies between price and value, but they make their selections very differently. Walter's largest holdings have been such stalwarts as Hudson Pulp & Paper and Jeddo Highland Coal and New York Trap Rock Company and all those other names that come instantly to mind to even a casual reader of the business pages. Tweedy Browne's selections have sunk even well below that level in terms of name recognition. On the other hand, Bill has worked with big companies. The overlap among these portfolios has been very, very low. These records do not reflect one guy calling the flip and fifty people yelling out the same thing after him.

我必須補充說明一下，截至目前我們所觀察的記錄，投資組合在整段期間都幾乎沒有重疊。他們都是根據價格與價值間的差異來選股，選擇的標的也截然不同。華特的最重要持股都是扎實的企業，如Hudson Pulp&Paper、Jeddo HighHand Coal、New York Trap Rock Company，即使是偶爾閱讀金融版新聞的人，對這些企業的名稱也耳熟能詳。帝地布朗公司所選擇的標的則更是名不見經傳的企業。另一方面，比爾的選擇標的則是大型企業。這些投資組合極少出現重疊現象。他們的記錄並非由某人主導的猜測銅板，其他人則只聽命附和。

Table 5 is the record of a friend of mine who is a Harvard Law graduate, who set up a major law firm. I ran into him in about 1960 and told him that law was fine as a hobby but he could do better. He set up a partnership quite the opposite of Walter's. His portfolio was concentrated in very few securities and therefore his record was much more volatile but it was based on the same discount-from-value approach. He was willing to accept greater peaks and valleys of performance, and he happens to be a fellow whose whole psyche goes toward concentration, with the results shown. Incidentally, this record belongs to Charlie Munger, my partner for a long time in the operation of Berkshire Hathaway. When he ran his partnership, however, his portfolio holdings were almost completely different from mine and the other fellows mentioned earlier.

表5的投資業績來自於我的—位朋友，他畢業於哈佛法學院，並且成立了一家主要的法律事務所。我大約在1960年 認識他，並且建議說，法律作為嗜好是件好事，但是他應該做得更好。於是，他成立了一家合伙公司，他的操作方式和華特迥異，他的投資組合集中在極少數的證 券，因此績效的變動比較激烈，但他仍然依據相同的價值折價法從事投資。他願意接受績效的上下震蕩，而他恰好是一位精神極度集中的人。他的名字是查理·蒙格，他是我在柏克夏公司從事操作的長期合伙股東。當他自己經營合伙事業時，他的投資組合和我或任何先前所提到的人完全都不同。

Table 6 is the record of a fellow who was a pal of Charlie Munger's -- another non-business school type -- who was a math major at USC. He went to work for IBM after graduation and was an IBM salesman for a while. After I got to Charlie, Charlie got to him. This happens to be the record of Rick Guerin. Rick, from 1965 to 1983, against a compounded gain of 316 percent for the S&P, came off with 22,200 percent, which probably because he lacks a business school education, he regards as statistically significant.

表6的投資業績屬於查理的一位好朋友——另一位非商學系出身的人——他畢業於南加州大學的數學系。畢業之後，他進入IBM，曾經擔任推銷員的工作。在我網羅查理之後，查理又網羅他。他的名字是瑞克·吉林。從1965年到]983年，史坦普指數的復利成長率為316％，而瑞克的績效為22200％，這或許是因為他缺乏商學教育背景，他可以視為具有統計上的顯著性。

One sidelight here: it is extraordinary to me that the idea of buying dollar bills for 40 cents takes immediately to people or it doesn't take at all. It's like an inoculation. If it doesn't grab a person right away, I find that you can talk to him for years and show him records, and it doesn't make any difference. They just don't seem able to grasp the concept, simple as it is. A fellow like Rick Guerin, who had no formal education in business, understands immediately the value approach to investing and he's applying it five minutes later. I've never seen anyone who became a gradual convert over a ten-year period to this approach. It doesn't seem to be a matter of IQ or academic training. It's instant recognition, or it is nothing.

在此撇開主題：以40美 分的價格買進一美元的紙鈔，人若不能夠立即接受這項概念，就永遠不會接受它。它就像注射藥劑。如果它無法立即抓住這個人，則我認為即使你長期地說服他，並 且展示各種記錄，你也無法讓他接受。這是很單純的概念，但他們就是無法領悟。類似瑞克這樣的人，他完全沒有正式商學教育的背景，卻可以立即領會價值投資 法，並且在五分鐘之後便加以利用。我從來不曾見過任何人，會在10年之後才逐漸地皈依這種方法。它似乎和智商或學術訓練無關。它是頓悟，否則就是拒絕。

Table 7 is the record of Stan Perlmeter. Stan was a liberal arts major at the University of Michigan who was a partner in the advertising agency of Bozell & Jacobs. We happened to be in the same building in Omaha. In 1965 he figured out I had a better business than he did, so he left advertising. Again, it took five minutes for Stan to embrace the value approach.

表7是史坦.波爾米塔（Stan Perlmeter）的投資業績。他畢業於密西根大學藝術系，是Bozell＆Jacobs廣告公司的合伙股東之—。我們的辦公室恰好於奧瑪哈市的同一幢大樓。1965年，他認為我所經營的事業比他的行業要好，於是他離開廣告業。再—次地，史坦於五分鐘之內就接受了價值投資法。

Perlmeter does not own what Walter Schloss owns. He does not own what Bill Ruane owns. These are records made independently . But every time Perlmeter buys a stock it's because he's getting more for his money than he's paying. That's the only thing he's thinking about. He's not looking at quarterly earnings projections, he's not looking at next year's earnings, he's not thinking about what day of the week it is, he doesn't care what investment research from any place says, he's not interested in price momentum, volume, or anything. He's simply asking: what is the business worth?

史坦所持有的股票與華特的不同。他所持有的股票也和比爾不同。他們都是獨立的記錄。但是，史坦買進每—支股票時，都是因為他所獲得的價值高於他所支付的價格。這是他惟一的考慮。他既不參考每一季的盈余預估值，也不參考明年的盈余項估值，他不在乎當時是星期幾，也不關心任何的投資研究報告，他無視價格動能、成交量與其他類似的變數。他只提出一個問題：該企業值多少錢?

Table 8 and Table 9 are the records of two pension funds I've been involved in. They are not selected from dozens of pension funds with which I have had involvement; they are the only two I have influenced. In both cases I have steered them toward value-oriented managers. Very, very few pension funds are managed from a value standpoint. Table 8 is the Washington Post Company's Pension Fund. It was with a large bank some years ago, and I suggested that they would do well to select managers who had a value orientation.

表8 與表9的投資業績記錄分別屬於我參與的兩家退休基金，它們並非是從我所參與的十幾種退休基金中選擇出來的，他是唯一兩家我能夠影響其投資決策的退休基金。 在這兩家基金中，我引導他們轉變為價值導向的投資管理人，只胡非常少數的基金是基於價值進行投資管理的。表8是華盛頓郵報公司退休基金（the Washington Post Company's Pension Fund）的投資業績記錄。幾年之前，他們委托一家大型銀行管理基金，後來，我建議他們聘請以價值為導向的基金經理，這樣能夠使投資業績更好。



As you can see, overall they have been in the top percentile ever since they made the change. The Post told the managers to keep at least 25 percent of these funds in bonds, which would not have been necessarily the choice of these managers. So I've included the bond performance simply to illustrate that this group has no particular expertise about bonds. They wouldn't have said they did. Even with this drag of 25 percent of their fund in an area that was not their game, they were in the top percentile of fund management. The Washington Post experience does not cover a terribly long period but it does represent many investment decisions by three managers who were not identified retroactively.

正如你在投資記錄中所看到的那樣，從他們更換基金經理之後，其整體投資業績在所有基金中一直名列前茅。華盛頓郵報公司要求基金經理人至少保持25 %的資金投資於債券，而債券未必是基金經理人的投資選擇。因此，我在表中也將其債券投資業績包括在內，而這些數據表明他們其實並沒有什麼特別的債券專業技 巧，他們也從未這樣吹噓進自己，雖然有25%的資金投資於他們並不擅長的債券領域，從而拖累了他們的投資業績，但其基金管理業績水平仍然名列前一百名之 內。華盛頓郵報公司退休基金的投資盡管並沒有經過一個很長的市場低迷時期的考驗，但仍然足以證明三位基金經理的許多投資決策並非後見之明。

Table 9 is the record of the FMC Corporation fund. I don't manage a dime of it myself but I did, in 1974, influence their decision to select value-oriented managers. Prior to that time they had selected managers much the same way as most larger companies. They now rank number one in the Becker survey of pension funds for their size over the period of time subsequent to this "conversion" to the value approach. Last year they had eight equity managers of any duration beyond a year. Seven of them had a cumulative record better than the S&P. The net difference now between a median performance and the actual performance of the FMC fund over this period is $243 million. FMC attributes this to the mindset given to them about the selection of managers. Those managers are not the managers I would necessarily select but they have the common denominators of selecting securities based on value.

表9 的投資業績屬於FMC公司退休基金，我本人沒有管理過這家基金的一分錢，但我的確在1974年影響了他們的決策，說服他們選擇以價值為導向的基金經理。在 此之前，他們采取與其他大型企業相同的方式來選擇基金經理。在他們轉向價值投資策略之後，其投資業績目前在貝克退休基金調查報告（the Becker survey of pension funds）中超越其他同等規模基金而名列第一。1983年時，該基金共有8位任職1年以上的基金經理，其中7位累積投資業績超過標准普爾指數。在此期 間，FMC基金的實際業績表現與基金平均業績表現的淨回報差額是2.43億美元，FMC將此歸功於他們與眾不同的基金經理選擇傾向，這些基金經理未必會是 我個人中意的選擇，但他們都具有一個共同的特點，即基於價值來選擇股票。

So these are nine records of "coin-flippers" from Graham-and-Doddsville. I haven't selected them with hindsight from among thousands. It's not like I am reciting to you the names of a bunch of lottery winners -- people I had never heard of before they won the lottery. I selected these men years ago based upon their framework for investment decision-making. I knew what they had been taught and additionally I had some personal knowledge of their intellect, character, and temperament. It's very important to understand that this group has assumed far less risk than average; note their record in years when the general market was weak. While they differ greatly in style, these investors are, mentally, always buying the business, not buying the stock . A few of them sometimes buy whole businesses. Far more often they simply buy small pieces of businesses. Their attitude, whether buying all or a tiny piece of a business, is the same. Some of them hold portfolios with dozens of stocks; others concentrate on a handful. But all exploit the difference between the market price of a business and its intrinsic value.

以上這9 項投資業績記錄都來自於「格雷厄姆一多德都市」　的「銅板投擲者」，是我根據他們的投資決策架構，在多年前便選定了他們。我了解他們所接受過的訓練，而且 知道他們的智慧、個性和脾氣。我們務必了解，這群人只承擔了一般水准以下的風險；留意他們在股市疲弱期間的記錄。他們的投資風格雖然大不相同，但心態上始 終恪守：買進的標的是企業，而非企業的股票。他們當中有些人偶爾會買下整個企業，但是他們經常只是購買企業的—小部分。不論買進整體或一部分的企業，他們 所秉持的態度完全相同。在投資組合，有些人持有幾十種的股票；有些人則集中少數幾支股票。但是，每個人都受惠於企業市場價格與其內含價值之間的差值。

I'm convinced that there is much inefficiency in the market. These Graham-and-Doddsville investors have successfully exploited gaps between price and value. When the price of a stock can be influenced by a "herd" on Wall Street with prices set at the margin by the most emotional person, or the greediest person, or the most depressed person, it is hard to argue that the market always prices rationally. In fact, market prices are frequently nonsensical.

我相信市場上存在著許多沒有效率的現象。這些來自於「格雷厄姆一多德都市」的投資人成功地掌握了價格與價值之間的缺口。華爾街的「群眾」可以影響股票價格，當最情緒化的人、最貪婪的或最沮喪的人肆意驅動股價時，我們很難辯稱市場價格是理性的產物。事實上，市場經常是不合理的。

I would like to say one important thing about risk and reward. Sometimes risk and reward are correlated in a positive fashion. If someone were to say to me, "I have here a six-shooter and I have slipped one cartridge into it. Why don't you just spin it and pull it once? If you survive, I will give you $1 million." I would decline -- perhaps stating that $1 million is not enough. Then he might offer me $5 million to pull the trigger twice -- now that would be a positive correlation between risk and reward!

我想提出有關報酬與風險之間的重要關系。在某些情況下，報酬與風險之間存在著正向關系。如果有人告訴我「我有一支六發彈裝的左輪槍，並且填裝一發子彈。你可以任意地撥動轉輪，然後朝自己扣一次扳機。如果你能夠逃過一功，我就賞你100萬美元。」我將會拒絕這項提議——或許我的理由是100萬美元太少了。然後，他可能建議將獎金提高為500萬美元，但必須扣兩次扳機——這便是報酬與風險之間的正向關系!

The exact opposite is true with value investing. If you buy a dollar bill for 60 cents, it's riskier than if you buy a dollar bill for 40 cents, but the expectation of reward is greater in the latter case. The greater the potential for reward in the value portfolio, the less risk there is.

在價值投資法當中，情況恰巧相反。如果你以60美分買進一美元的紙鈔，其風險大於以40美分買進一美元的紙鈔，但後者報酬的期望值卻比較高。以價值為導向的投資組合，其報酬的潛力愈高，風險愈低。

One quick example: The Washington Post Company in 1973 was selling for $80 million in the market. At the time, that day, you could have sold the assets to any one of ten buyers for not less than $400 million, probably appreciably more. The company owned the Post , Newsweek , plus several television stations in major markets. Those same properties are worth $2 billion now, so the person who would have paid $400 million would not have been crazy.

我可以舉一個簡單的例子：在1973年，華盛頓郵報公司的總市值為8千萬美元。在這一天，你可以將其資產賣給十位買家之一，而且價格不低於4億美元，甚至還能更高。該公司擁有華盛頓郵報、商業周刊以及數家重要的電視台。這些資產目前的價值為4億美元，因此願意支付4億美元的買家並非瘋子。

Now, if the stock had declined even further to a price that made the valuation $40 million instead of $80 million, its beta would have been greater. And to people that think beta measures risk, the cheaper price would have made it look riskier. This is truly Alice in Wonderland. I have never been able to figure out why it's riskier to buy $400

末日教主洪瑞泰現身說法：每次出手，都在股災肆虐的美好時刻！

財富人生》末日教主洪瑞泰現身說法：每次出手，都在股災肆虐的美好時刻！
文 高行 2008-11-26

股票賺錢的關鍵，說穿了就是低買高賣。道理人人都懂，但能做到的卻是少之又少，到底出了什麼差錯？


金融暴風肆虐，大盤無情下殺。不少活躍於媒體的投顧名師紛紛「跑路」之際，晉昂投顧總經理洪瑞泰卻一副老神在在，手邊電話老是響個不停。話筒的另一端，一再詢問開課的時間與地點，而「客訴率」則趨近於零。


宛如末日教主的洪瑞泰，其貌不揚，個頭小小，之所以歷經多次股災仍深受徒子徒孫們愛戴，倒不是靠著神凖的明牌，而是一再地端出股市中的模範生，順著長線布局與低買高賣的投資紀律，即使遭遇大氣候的狂風驟雨，也能安然地度過難關。


會買菜就會買股
洪瑞泰驕傲地回憶，「早在今年5月台股衝到9,000多點的時候，我就告訴學員們看看手頭持股是不是變『貴』了，如果是，就考慮不留情地丟掉。」不過他強調這絕非「先見之明」的真知灼見，其實，買股票和在菜市場買菜一樣，看便宜才買，一旦變貴了，菜販說破了嘴都別理會。


很多人都知道「買菜」撿便宜的道理，但是在「買股」時，賤買貴賣的原則卻忘得一乾二淨，總是陷入追高殺低的「非理性邏輯」，浮沈多年賺不到錢，股災降臨時更是雪上加霜。


為何一路走來始終「歹命」？洪瑞泰語重心長地回答：「投資人之所以老是買在高點、賣在高點而賠錢，主因就出在對股市抱持太多無謂的預期，而預測往往不見得準確，同時存在著必然的邏輯謬誤。」


別貿然預測未來

曾在外資證券與投信打滾十多年的他，不否認也曾和很多投資人一般，老是喜歡順著市場風向預測大盤的起伏、誰是下一波股市明星、個股來年的獲利興衰等種種問題，但到頭來總是白忙一場，覺得自己既「白痴」又「無聊」，期間尤其痛苦的是，每當預測失靈，總是找盡理由來圓謊。


不過自2000年後，洪瑞泰的投資邏輯出現徹頭徹尾地大轉變，不再貿然預測大盤，也不再奢望能從產業趨勢抓到潛力股，總之，只要牽涉到預測的事，他一律不做。他進一步解釋，就算大盤漲，手上持股不見得會漲；即使成功預測哪個產業將大躍進，這和個別公司的股價表現也沒啥必然關係。


洪瑞泰的投資策略從過去的「由上而下」180度逆轉為「由下而上」，刻意避開市場干擾，一股腦地把焦點轉移至個股上，他總結：「再普通不過的產業，也會有績優生，正所謂行行出狀元。」


樸素簡單就是美
自從2003年起，所謂「超級轉機股」以及「超級潛力股」，便不復見在他的投資組合中，反倒是某些看來死氣沈沈的傳產類龍頭，例如中碳、億豐、中鋼、台塑、南亞、中保等，都成為他所青睞的標的，而這些績優生都沒讓他失望，幾年下來，股價加上股息的報酬都是以倍數計算。


洪瑞泰強調，按照買進時前五年的歷史紀錄觀察，這些個股都是各產業中的佼佼者，公司淨值都以20%以上的速率迅速墊高，同時，這些公司把賺到的錢再投資的比率也相當有限，足見獲利並非來自資本擴張，而是實實在在的產品競爭力。即便是股價一時間受委屈，但市場必然會還它一個公道。


根據洪瑞泰多年觀察，在台股上千家上市、櫃公司中，有資格稱為模範生或績優生的僅占4%，算下來不過40檔左右。但他特別提醒，「千萬別因為是績優股就隨便買或隨時買，務必要等到股價便宜時再買。」這也就是股神巴菲特堅守40年的「投資安全邊際」的白話文解釋。


等待是一種美德

舉例來說，他在兩年之前就發現長興這檔個股符合模範生定義，但由於股價一直都沒有到達他所定義的便宜價位之下，苦等兩年而未出手。不過，這檔個股近半年受大盤拖累而股價由50多元滑落至20元左右，他因此大舉進貨，即使股價持續下挫也不擔心，套上巴菲特的定義，這檔個股的「內在價值」至少有20元以上水準，便宜買進準不吃虧。


又如另一支他所定義的績優生—大統益，身為統一旗下食用油的龍頭廠商，近年來股東權益報酬率都保持在20%左右。


換句話說，若將這家公司的總經理看成是基金經理人，他每年都能為大統益這支「基金」創造20%以上的正報酬，績效相當驚人不說，該公司的盈餘再投資率相當低，今年現金殖利率高達13%。過去股價有些貴，但近期回落至20元左右的低價位，此時不撿，更待何時？


惡魔其實很美麗

「只要循著『等便宜再買』的買股鐵律，就不會困在追高殺低的惡性循環裡。」洪瑞泰強調，「你不會買到50元的中鋼或70元的國泰金，反而會買到25元的中鋼、40元的國泰金等羨煞人的超低價位。甚至回過頭來看，每一次出手，都是在股災至為嚴峻的美好時刻！」


無論選股還是買股，洪瑞泰除了自成一家的邏輯之外，重點就是耐心篩選、耐心等待，然而，選股是技術，抱股更是門藝術，他正色說：「股票買賣的本質絕對和短線進出格格不入！」


攤開過去每的股市曲線來看，真正的大波段一年也不過出現一至二次。將時間再拉長一點觀察，每逢三至五年，才會出現因股災形成的大底，包括2003年SARS風暴、2001年911恐怖攻擊乃至於1998年的亞洲金融風暴，都是股價落入便宜價位的時間點，因此，精明的投資人極可能兩三年才進場一次，抱股的時間也是以年為單位來計算。

洪瑞泰特別提醒，別看現在市場爛成一團，但對價值型的投資人來說，卻正是危機入市的大好時機！


洪瑞泰小檔案：

現任：晉昂投顧總經理
學歷：政大統計學碩士
經歷：英商怡富（Jardine Fleming）證券研究部副理
日商日興（Nikko）證券研究部經理
投資心法：嚴選股市績優生，不便宜絕不買。


想根除投資惡習嗎？洪瑞泰幫你把脈

（一）別跟著市場熱漲冷縮
散戶喜歡聽消息、看趨勢、觀漲跌，往往會使人在市場愈漲時愈樂觀，愈跌時愈悲觀，和「逢高出脫、逢低買進」的賺錢定律背道而馳。因此，別對預測性的漲跌趨勢有所期待，反而要和市場雜音保持距離，把所有心力和焦點放在個股身上，以長期股東權益報酬率為指標，篩選出隱藏在各產業的績優生，列入觀察名單。

（二）務必等便宜時買進
建立起模範生名單後，接下來可能要做的工作就是什麼也不做，靜心等待入選名單中個股的便宜價位來臨。根據巴菲特的算法，個股的便宜價位由預期年均投資報酬率為15%以上換算而求出，壓倒性擊敗長期定存利率6.7%，因此股價變便宜的時機並不多見，幾乎都出現在市場冷到谷底時，完全符合逢低進場原則。

（三）列入你的追蹤名單
許多可列名台股模範生的個股，可能是你耳熟能詳的績優股，也許你是不大留意的冷門股，不過都具備高股東權益報酬和低盈餘再投資率的特質，買進這些股票，也許短時間不見得一飛沖天，但絕對有等待的價值。洪瑞泰特別列舉八檔長期追蹤的模範生，並計算出便宜價位。切記，務必等股價便宜時再買！

＊＊＊ 財富人生11月號 ＊＊＊
http://tw.memode.com/s/mm00037114.html

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